On February 13, 2018, Jolene Creighton writes on Futurism:
If you work in an ad agency, a robot is probably going to take your job. If you drive a taxi, or work for a ride-hailing service like Uber, a robot is definitely going to take your job — and will probably do so in the next couple of years. If robot autonomy doesn’t take your job (but just an FYI, it probably will) you are going to get paid less because of a robot.
We hear these facts on a near constant basis. New reports continually add to the list of the soon-jobless, saying that automation is going to steal work from lawyers, from writers, and even from the information technology experts developing and installing computer systems today. Estimates say up to a third of the workforcecould become automated just over the next decade.
So, just how much do you have to worry?
To find out, Futurism’s Alex Klokus spoke at the World Government Summit with Daniela Rus, the Director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) at MIT, about automation and the world that AIs are already creating.
Rus attended the Dubai summit to speak about the next great revolution: the autonomous revolution. Just as the agricultural, industrial, and cyber revolutions led to fundamental shifts in how we live and work, so is the age of autonomy reshaping the very fabric of our society.
Soon, Rus says, AI will be woven into every aspect of our existence. Yet she does not see this future as one of despondency and despair. Far from the economic upheaval and mass job loss portended by some, Rus envisions a future in which humans benefit from the fruits of AI labor.
When the topic of AI comes up, Rus noted that people frequently jump to the downsides: “Some people get very anxious and start asking about Skynet and when robots will start taking over their jobs. Well, I believe that everyone stands to benefit from AI,” Rus proclaimed.
When asked how she thinks governments can ensure that AI advances do, in fact, benefit humans, Rus stated that such guarantees will require grandiose shifts in how we think about education. Currently, Rus explained, we think that education has an end point, a point at which it doesn’t make sense to go any further. This needs to change.
“In the future, we will have a very parallel approach to working and learning,” Rus said. “We study, and study, and study, and then we say, ‘okay you learned enough, you can start working now.’ In the future, we will have to blend studying and working.”
This parallel approach is something that, Rus believes, governments and companies will need to figure out soon. Will companies be responsible for constantly training and retraining their workers so that they can keep pace with new facets of their work? Or will governments be responsible for this lifelong learning?
At the present juncture, there are no clear answers. This work hasn’t yet been carried out— or really even begun.
A Better Way of Seeing
As the world works to prepare itself for the age of automation, Rus says it must also prepare its citizens to have a different outlook on developments in AI and autonomy. Instead of jumping to killer robots and job loss, we need to provide alternative ways of thinking that allow people to understand the benefits of AI.
One such benefit can already be seen in the autonomous driving industry. Though level 5 autonomy is not quite here yet, and autonomous cars are not yet ready for public roads, Rus pointed out that driverless cars are already capable of driving people around places that have less congestion and hazards, such as parks and retirement homes. To whit, in her presentation Rus showed a short video of a golf cart-like car picking up an elderly passenger and driving her from her retirement home to meet her friend for lunch on the boardwalk nearby. This, Rus notes, is an example of a benefit of AI, and of how autonomous features can restore freedom and mobility to those who are confined to their apartments and houses.
“Notice that this car does not have a driver, but we should not see this is displacing work because this is a service that does not exist,” Rus said optimistically. (This incited a quiet laugh from philosopher Nick Bostrom, beside me, at her vision of a world where autonomous cars don’t replace human drivers.)
Rus also noted in her talk that health and medicine AI systems make a number of errors when analyzing medical images for signs of cancer — in 7.5 percent of cases, to be exact. Humans? They hovered around 3.5 percent. Yet together, humans working with AI machine systems lowered the error rate to just 0.5 percent. “Doctors will be able to offer the most advanced treatments by working in tandem with machines,” Rus said. She continued by noting that this is just one example which proves that AI will not replace human workers, but augment the work that they do. Some in the audience looked skeptical.
Rus reinforced her argument by noting that, when talking about job loss, lawyers are often right at the top of the list. However, she asserts these stories are hype and highly exaggerated. “Natural language systems can read entire libraries of books and provide information at just the right time, right when it is needed,” she said. “This doesn’t mean that machines are becoming lawyers. Machines are just changing the work that lawyers do.”
There is some truth to these claims. Take, for example, the legal technology company LawGeex, which created an AI algorithm that automatically reviews contracts. Automating such processes that are little more than paper-pushing has saved law firms a lot of money; however, the true advantage of these autonomous systems is saving attorneys’ time. Indeed, as one participant noted in an earlier round table talk on AI, “No one went to law school to cut and paste parts of a regulatory document.”
Overall, Rus says, she has two concerns: “One is about the quality of the job, and the other is about wages,” she said. “I am not concerned about whether we will have enough jobs, I am concerned about whether we will have enough good jobs.” For example, Rus described how GPS made it possible to become a taxi driver without knowing the maps and road systems. This lowered the entry point for work, but it also lowered wages.
In truth, the concerns don’t end there. Initially, robots will augment our work; yet if autonomous systems continue to progress, becoming faster and smarter, what is the guarantee that humans will truly have a place? Of course, there is none. Yet our social, political, and economic systems can evolve. And so can we.
Machines have the power to support us or to hurt humanity; it is up to us to decide how we interact with them, how we govern them, and how we set the rules for machines — as well as the necessary legislation to govern humanity — to ensure that all of these advances are for the greater good.
There’s nothing new about machines replacing people, but the rate of replacement is exponential and the result is that productivity gains lead to more wealth for the OWNERS of the non-human factor of production, but for others who have always been dependent on jobs as their source of income, there has been a steady decline to poverty-level labor incomes as private sector job creation in numbers that match the pool of people willing and able to work is constantly being eroded by physical productive capital’s ever increasing role.
Thus, we can no longer ignore the necessity to broaden personal ownership of wealth-creating, income-producing capital assets simultaneously with the growth of the economy.
Given the current invisible structure of the economy, except for a relative few, the majority of the population, no matter how well educated, will not be able to find a job that pays sufficient wages or salaries to support a family or prevent a lifestyle which is gradually being crippled by near poverty or poverty earnings. Thus, education is not the panacea, though it is critical for our future societal development. And younger, as well as older people, will increasingly find it harder and harder to secure a well-paying job – for most, their ONLY source of income – and will find themselves dependent on taxpayer-supported government welfare, open and disguised or concealed.
For decades employment opportunity in the United States was such that the majority of people could obtain a job that could support their livelihood, though, in most cases related to a family, it eventually required the father and mother to both work, if they aspired to live a “middle-class” lifestyle. With “Free Trade” those opportunities began to disintegrate as corporations sought to seek lower-cost production, taking advantage of global cheap labor rates and non-regulation, as well as lower tax rates abroad. This resulted in a chain reaction forcing more and more companies to outsource in order to stay competitive (thus the rise of China, India, Mexico, and other third-world nation economies).
At the same time, tectonic shifts in the technologies of production were exponentially occurring (and continue to do so), which resulted (and continues to result) in less job opportunities as production was shifted from people making things to “machines” (the non-human factor) making things. The combination of cheap global labor costs and lower, long-term-invested “machine” costs has forced the worth of labor downward, and this will continue to be the reality. Our only way to far greater inclusive prosperity, inclusive opportunity, and inclusive economic justice is to embrace technological innovation and invention and the resulting human-intelligent machines, super-automation, robotics, digital computerized operations, etc. as the primary economic engine of growth.
But significantly, unless we reform our system to empower EVERY American to acquire, via pure, interest-free insured capital credit loans, viable full-ownership holdings (and thus entitlement to full-dividend earnings) in the companies growing the economy, with the future earnings of the investments paying for the initial loan debt to acquire ownership, the concentration of ownership of ALL future productive capital will continue to be amassed by a wealthy minority capital ownership class. Companies will continue to globalize in search of “customers with money” or simply fail, as exponentially there will be fewer and fewer customers to support their businesses worldwide. Why, because the majority will be disconnected from the dividend income derived from the non-human means of production that is replacing the need for labor workers who earn wages and salaries, which are then used to purchase products and services.
Soon, industrial monopoly capitalism will reach its twin goals: concentration of productive capital ownership among the elite ownership class and work performed with as few labor workers and the lowest possible wages and salaries. The question to be answered is “What then?”
The transition to the non-human factor of production has been occurring for decades but is now experiencing exponential development – the result of tectonic shifts in the technologies of production. As costs for computer-controlled machines become less than the cost of human workers, and the skills and productivity of the machines exceed those of human workers, then robot worker numbers will rapidly increase and enable our society to build architectural wonders, revitalize and redevelop our cities and build new cities of wonder and amazement, along with support energy, transport, and communications systems. Super-automation and robotics is transforming the world of manufacturing as robots become lighter, more mobile, and more flexible with better sensing, perception, decision-making, and planning and control capabilities due to advanced digital computerization. Super-automation and robotics operated by human-intelligent computerization will dramatically improve productivity and provide skills and abilities previously unique to human workers. This will effectively increase the size of the labor work force globally beyond that provided by human workers, no matter what the level of education attained. With advanced human-level artificial intelligence, computer-controlled machines will be able to learn new knowledge and skills by simply downloading software programs and apps. This means that the years of training that apply to personal human development will no longer apply to the further sophistication and operation of the machines. The result will be that productivity will soar while the need and demand for human labor will further decline.Unfortunately, in the long term, unless the vast majority of people have a substantial and viable source of income other than wages and salaries, the impact of technological innovation and invention as embodied in human-level artificial intelligence, machines, super-automation, robotics, digital computerized operations, etc. will be devastating.
There are ONLY two options: either “Own or Be Owned.” The “Owned” model is what our society practices today and is expressed as monopoly capitalism (concentrated ownership) or socialism (taxpayer-supported redistributed social benefits). The “Own” model, or what my colleagues and I term the Just Third Way, has yet to be implemented on the scale necessary to empower every man, woman, and child to acquire private, individual ownership stakes in the future income-producing productive capital assets of the “intelligent automated machine age” – facilitated by the future earnings of their investments in the companies developing and employing this unprecedented economic power.
Unfortunately, the disruptive nature of exponential growth in technology and its impact on productivity – tectonically shifting production of products and services from human workers to non-human means – is not understood and ignored by the economic establishment, academia, and our political leaders.While the rate of technological progress is directly proportional to the number and quality of the people engaged in the fields of science and engineering, economic policy is the mechanism that fuels investment and development of technological innovation and invention. This is where education is critical to our future societal development.
Education should be encouraged and expanded. Everyone should have the opportunity to personally develop their own exceptional innate abilities and unlock their creativity.
But except for the personal development benefit to advancing one’s education, the reality is that far less “educated” people will be necessary in the long term to produce the products and services necessary and valued by society. This is due to the exponential development of human-level artificial intelligence, which is embodied in advanced automation and robotics.
Those college graduates who do succeed within the fields of science and engineering are hired workers to do what? Our scientists, engineers, and executive managers, who are not owners themselves of the companies they work for, except for those in the highest employed positions, are encouraged to work to destroy employment by making the capital owners’ assets more productive. How much employment can be destroyed by substituting machines for people is a measure of their success – always focused on producing at the lowest cost.
We need to realize that full employment is not a function of businesses. Companies strive to keep labor input and other costs at a minimum. Private sector job creation in numbers that match the pool of people willing and able to work is constantly being eroded by physical productive capital’s ever-increasing role.
We need to reform and restructure our economy and set as the GOAL broadened private, individual ownership of future wealth-creating, income-generating productive capital assets among ALL Americans, with capital estates ever building as the economy grows. Without a policy shift to broaden productive capital ownership simultaneously with economic growth, further development of technology and globalization will undermine the American middle class and make it impossible for more than a minority of citizens to achieve middle-class status. By changing course, over time and within a few decades, our “machined-powered” growth economy would produce greater wealth, and widespread private, individual ownership would assure prosperity, opportunity, and general affluence for every citizen. Broadened productive capital ownership would strengthen our democracy and individuals and families would be less or non-dependent on government welfare, whether disguised or not.
This prosperous society is achievable because, fortunately, in the near term, we can begin to grow our way out of the swelling unemployment and underemployment by increasing our investment significantly as a ratio of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) resulting in double-digit growth, while simultaneously broadening private, individual ownership of future income-producing productive capital investments, thus initiating the process of empowering every man, woman, and child to build over time a viable capital estate and reap the income generated. The key operative is BROADEN OWNERSHIP. Such investment would, in the short term, generate millions of new “real” productive jobs. The result would not only be that the GDP would dramatically grow but tax revenues from the high rate of economic growth would enable us to balance the federal budget, fully fund Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, provide Universal Health Care, Universal University Education, lower tax rates, and maintain a strong military, all simultaneously.
We have the opportunity to free economic growth from the “enslavement” of human labor and from the financial mechanisms that are based on the slavery of past savings. Technological progress, though, is no longer dependent on the number and quality of human workers. This fact will become obvious eventually to anyone who can think and analyze as they realize the reality that human labor will cease to be the primary source of wealth production in the future. As a result we can expect over the long term that unemployment and underemployment will remain high indefinitely. But the difference will be that people will drop out of the labor force voluntarily because they will be able to live off their dividend earnings via their ownership portfolios. This will create swelling demand for human workers who want to continue working. And with both dividend and wage and salary incomes for everyone there will be more customers to purchase the products and services produced, which in turn will create further dividends and earnings, which will create more customers, etc.
While the future holds less promise for universal job employment due to the ever-progressing contribution of technological-driven production using human-intelligent machines, super-automation, robotics and digital computerized operations, the jobs that will be in demand will require some mastery of technology, math, and science. As long as working people are limited by earning income solely through their labor worker wages, they will be left behind by the continued gravitation of economic bounty toward the top 1 percent of the people that the system is rigged to benefit. If we don’t re-chart our economic policies to broaden private, individual ownership of new productive capital formation, then more troubling is that the continued stagnation of the American economy will further dim the economic hopes of America’s youth, no matter what their education level. The result will have profound long-term consequences for the nation’s economic health and further limit equal earning opportunity and spread income inequality. As the need for labor decreases and the power and leverage of productive capital increases, the gap between labor workers and productive capital asset owners will increase, and the conditions will become very frightening and very chaotic.
Sadly, our leaders are not prepared and are not preparing the American people for the coming economic collapse and the next Great Depression, due to their lack of wisdom and foresight to understand that full employment is not an objective of businesses and private sector job creation opportunities are constantly being eroded by physical productive capital’s ever increasing role – as the use of human-intelligent machines, super-automation, robotics, digital computerized operations, etc. replaces labor workers to produce products and services.
The question that requires an answer is now timely before us. It was first posed by binary economist Louis Kelso in the 1950s but has never been thoroughly discussed on the national stage. Nor has there been the proper education of our citizenry that addresses what economic justice is and what ownership is. Therefore, by ignoring such issues of economic justice and ownership, our leaders are ignoring the concentration of power through ownership of productive capital, with the result of denying the 99 percenters equal opportunity to become productive capital owners. The question, as posed by Kelso is: “how are all individuals to be adequately productive when a tiny minority (capital owners) produce a major share and the vast majority (labor workers), a minor share of total goods and service,” and thus, “how do we get from a world in which the most productive factor – physical capital – is owned by a handful of people, to a world where the same factor is owned by a majority – and ultimately 100 percent – of the consumers, while respecting all the constitutional rights of present capital owners?”
The path to prosperity, opportunity, and economic justice can be found in the writings about the the Capital Homestead Act. For more overviews related to this topic see my article “The Absent Conversation: Who Should Own America?” published by The Huffington Post and by OpEd News.
Also see “The Path To Eradicating Poverty In America” and “The Path To Sustainable Economic Growth“, and the article entitled “The Solution To America’s Economic Decline” at http://www.foreconomicjustice.org/?p=16730.
Support the Capital Homestead Act (aka Economic Democracy Act and Economic Empowerment Act) at http://www.cesj.org/learn/capital-homesteading/, http://www.cesj.org/learn/capital-homesteading/capital-homestead-act-a-plan-for-getting-ownership-income-and-power-to-every-citizen/, http://www.cesj.org/learn/capital-homesteading/capital-homestead-act-summary/ and http://www.cesj.org/learn/capital-homesteading/ch-vehicles/.
