Robot warriors may no longer be a thing of science fiction in a few years.
On November 5, 2015, Sue Chang writes on Market Watch:
Robots taking over the world is a popular theme in pop culture — and it’s also emerging as a compelling investment idea as robots step off the pages of science fiction novels into assembly lines and homes.
“Robots are likely to be performing 45% of manufacturing tasks by 2025 versus 10% today,” said Beija Ma, an equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a 300-page report titled, “Robot Revolution – Global Robot & AI Primer.”
Ma estimated that the robots and AI solutions market will grow to $153 billion by 2020, with robots and robotics grabbing an $83 billion share and AI-based analytics taking $70 billion worth.
Global sales of robots topped $10.7 billion in 2014, with China, the U.S., Japan, Korea and Germany accounting for 70% of the market.
Meanwhile, AI has become an integral part of technology with companies like Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.15% Facebook Inc. FB, +0.93% Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +0.88%International Business Machines Corp. IBM, -0.52% Intel Corp. INTC, -0.86%LinkedIn Corp. LNKD, -0.86% Yahoo Inc. YHOO, -1.74% and Twitter Inc.TWTR, -2.22% investing heavily in AI-based technologies.
In a span of 12 months, Google bought 9 robotics companies while Uber hired 40 researchers from Carnegie Mellon University to develop auto-driving technology, she added.
“AI has become an essential part of the technology industry—including the 3.5 billion plus Google searches made every day—and is increasingly providing the heavy lifting for many of the most challenging problems in computer science,” said Ma.
The eight sectors that offer solid entry points for investors to take advantage of the robot theme are AI, aerospace and defense, autos and transport, financials, health care, industrials, services and agriculture and mining.
Driverless cars, alone, have the potential to generate positive impact valued at $200 billion to $1.9 trillion by 2025.
The defense sector is also expected to witness a surge in adoption of robots and AI due to a desire by government to reduce fatalities while adopting riskier tactics. Drones currently account for 80% of all military robots.
In the financial sector, robo advisers and automated trading systems are forecast to take on the work of 110-140 million full-time equivalents and are expected to generate $5.2 trillion to $6.7 trillion in impact.
“Robots and AI are becoming an integral part of our daily lives as providers of labor, mobility, safety, convenience, and entertainment,” Ma said.
Among the some 200 stocks covered by Bank of America Merrill Lynch with exposure to robotics, only 9 companies are considered pure plays where they derive 100% of their sales from robots and AI.
They are Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, -0.58% Rockwell Automation Corp.ROK, +0.11% ABB Ltd. ABB, +0.16% Japan’s Fanuc FANUF, +1.20% Mitsubishi Electric 6503, -0.94% Nabtesco 6268, +2.56% Omron 6645, -0.22% Yaskawa Electric6506, -1.17% and China’s Inovance 300124, +1.07% .
“Although it is difficult to accurately gauge the link between such exposure and share price performance, we still consider robot and AI exposure as an important and positive point to track given that robots and AI is a global ‘Transforming World’ theme with a long lifespan,” said Ma.
Comment By Robert Reich:
What do you think?
Comment By Gary Reber:
Author Sue Wang writes that robotics is a “compelling investment idea,” as the reality is that robotics has become an integral part of the evolution of technology and a replacement for human labor, enabling corporations to produce at less cost as robotics take on more and more tasks humans used to do.
“Robots are likely to be performing 45 percent of manufacturing tasks by 2025 versus 10 percent today,” said Beija Ma, an equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a 300-page report titled, “Robot Revolution – Global Robot & AI Primer.” Of course, the reach of robotics is far wider than just the manufacturing sector, permeating every sector of production products and services. “Robots and AI are becoming an integral part of our daily lives as providers of labor, mobility, safety, convenience, and entertainment,” Ma said.
Yet, while acknowledging that robots could replace 47 percent of all jobs in the United States over the next twenty years, Robert Reich continues to wrestle with the plight of the multitude of jobless who “won’t have any money to buy the bots or anything they produce.” Reich views this new paradigm ONLY in terms of the joblessness that will result and not the opportunity for EVERY citizen to OWN this non-human means of production and benefit from it wealth-creation, and income-producing benefits.
Reich’s conventional view is stuck in one-factor human labor ONLY solutions that focus on joblessness due to technological shifts from human input to non-human input with the solution being make-work and a guaranteed annual income, justified with the requirement for volunteer work (because those benefiting would otherwise provide no productive input to the economy). Reich is succumbing to solutions that redistribute the earnings of the productive to the non-productive in our society. This thinking ignores the reality that technological change makes non-human tools, machines, structures, and processes ever more productive while leaving human productiveness largely unchanged (our human abilities are limited by physical strength and brain power – and relatively constant). The technology industry is always changing, evolving and innovating. The result is that primary distribution through the free market economy, whose distributive principle is “to each according to his production,” delivers progressively more market-sourced income to capital owners and progressively less to workers who make their contribution through labor.
This tectonic shift in the technologies of production, compounded by corporations seeking to produce at the lowest possible cost on a global scale and offer products and services at low cost and to maximize earnings to their owners, has created the greatest crisis facing our country today. The result is an obscene level of wealth and income economic inequality we now see, which has come about due to concentrated ownership of the private property rights in the productive assets employed in the production of products and services in our economy. This is a moral issue, an economic issue, and a political issue.